AFC Leopards has twice as many fans as Gor Mahia…..

Ingwe vs Kogalo

The KPL titans

There is no doubt that AFC Leopards and Gor Mahia have the largest fan base in Kenya, the
tragic stampede being regrettable evidence of that.
The likes of Sofapaka, Mathare, Tusker and Ulinzi would be hard pressed to fill bus with fans.
The real question is: Between AFC and Gor, who has more supporters?
I will attempt to use Kenya’s 2010 census results and apply an algorithm, rife with conjecture and
unknown values, to come up with spurious numbers that provide more heat than illumination.

According to the census, the top ethnic communities by numbers are Kikuyu at 6.62 million,
Luhya 5.33 million, the Kalenjin at 4.96 million, and Luo 4.04 million,
Others are Kamba (3.89 million), Kenyan Somali (2.38 million), Kisii (2.21 million), Mijikenda (1.96 million), Meru (1.65 million), Turkana (0.99 million), Maasai (0.84 million), Teso (0.33 million) and Embu (0.32 million) among others.
Assumption number one is all Luhyas support AFC but only “n” are active fans, thus AFC fans
who are luhyas = 5.33 X n Assumption number two is all Luos support Gor but only “n” are active fans, thus Gor fans who
are luo = 4.04 X n
Assumption three is the likely number of Bantus supporting AFC as opposed to Gor is an
abitrary ratio of 4 to 1, therefore among the football fans who are Kisii, Mijikenda, Kamba,
Kikuyu, Teso, Embu and Meru with active fans being a factor of “m” AFC would have 4/5(16 X m)
and Gor 1/5(16 X m)
Assumption four is that Nilotes supporting AFC as opposed to Gor is a ratio of 1 to 2 (the lower
ratio as compared to Bantu is because Luos are riverlake nilotes, the others are highland and
plain nilotes, besides their kingpins are in each others cross hairs), therefore among football
fans who are Kalenjin, Turkana and Maasai with active fans being a factor of “m” AFC would have
1/3(6.8 X m) and Gor 2/3(6.8 X m).
We can assume both teams get equal support from Kenyan somali, whites, Asians etc
Therefore assigning a value of 0.25 to “n” and 0.15 to “m”,
The total number of AFC supporters will be: (5.33 X 0.25) + 4/5(16 X 0.15) + 1/3(6.8 X 0.15) =
3,590,000 fans
The total number of Gor supporters will be: (4.04 X 0.25) + 1/5(16 X 0.15) + 2/3(6.8 X 0.15)
1.01+480,000 = 2,170,000 fans
Ingwe has almost twice as many fans as Kogalo according to my ridiculous mathematics

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  1. #1 by Kenyan star on November 4, 2010 - 7:04 am

    I like the Bantu assumption which i have interestingly found it to hold.
    However note that because Kenyans like being associated with ‘one of their one’, the following will also hold.

    1. Kikuyus will support AFC just because Peter ‘misse’ Mwangi plays for leopards.
    2. Masaais will support AFC because former chairman Ole magelo is their own and he literally picked leopards from dust back to the premier league two seasons ago.
    3. Most kales are not into local soccer but will support Gor because of Langat in the team.
    4.Most luhyas will still have a soft spot for gor because Wekesa and Masika are key figures in K’ogalo defence.

  2. #2 by Neemo on November 4, 2010 - 9:46 am

    Ume-crack kabisa!

    • #3 by Wes on November 11, 2010 - 9:41 am

      arch did this to me….

  3. #4 by Murfy on November 12, 2010 - 5:08 am

    Shindwe!

    • #5 by Wes on November 12, 2010 - 9:18 am

      Men lie, women lie, numbers don’t…

  4. #6 by Omondi Ebrahim (@jaote) on October 4, 2011 - 8:54 am

    ..you should be making far much more in gate collection and merchandise sales. Ama most of you ni Sofaset Branch members?

    • #7 by Wes on October 4, 2011 - 3:40 pm

      Something doesn’t add up with the last match’s gate collections. We must find a way to get to the bottom of this matter.

  1. 2010 in review « Wesley's Blog

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