There is no doubt that AFC Leopards and Gor Mahia have the largest fan base in Kenya, the
tragic stampede being regrettable evidence of that.
The likes of Sofapaka, Mathare, Tusker and Ulinzi would be hard pressed to fill bus with fans.
The real question is: Between AFC and Gor, who has more supporters?
I will attempt to use Kenya’s 2010 census results and apply an algorithm, rife with conjecture and
unknown values, to come up with spurious numbers that provide more heat than illumination.
According to the census, the top ethnic communities by numbers are Kikuyu at 6.62 million,
Luhya 5.33 million, the Kalenjin at 4.96 million, and Luo 4.04 million,
Others are Kamba (3.89 million), Kenyan Somali (2.38 million), Kisii (2.21 million), Mijikenda (1.96 million), Meru (1.65 million), Turkana (0.99 million), Maasai (0.84 million), Teso (0.33 million) and Embu (0.32 million) among others.
Assumption number one is all Luhyas support AFC but only “n” are active fans, thus AFC fans
who are luhyas = 5.33 X n Assumption number two is all Luos support Gor but only “n” are active fans, thus Gor fans who
are luo = 4.04 X n
Assumption three is the likely number of Bantus supporting AFC as opposed to Gor is an
abitrary ratio of 4 to 1, therefore among the football fans who are Kisii, Mijikenda, Kamba,
Kikuyu, Teso, Embu and Meru with active fans being a factor of “m” AFC would have 4/5(16 X m)
and Gor 1/5(16 X m)
Assumption four is that Nilotes supporting AFC as opposed to Gor is a ratio of 1 to 2 (the lower
ratio as compared to Bantu is because Luos are riverlake nilotes, the others are highland and
plain nilotes, besides their kingpins are in each others cross hairs), therefore among football
fans who are Kalenjin, Turkana and Maasai with active fans being a factor of “m” AFC would have
1/3(6.8 X m) and Gor 2/3(6.8 X m).
We can assume both teams get equal support from Kenyan somali, whites, Asians etc
Therefore assigning a value of 0.25 to “n” and 0.15 to “m”,
The total number of AFC supporters will be: (5.33 X 0.25) + 4/5(16 X 0.15) + 1/3(6.8 X 0.15) =
The total number of Gor supporters will be: (4.04 X 0.25) + 1/5(16 X 0.15) + 2/3(6.8 X 0.15)
1.01+480,000 = 2,170,000 fans
Ingwe has almost twice as many fans as Kogalo according to my ridiculous mathematics